Best
Practices
How Much of a Problem is Guessing
on a Criterion-Referenced (Mastery) Test?
Anyone who gives multiple choice tests
worries about the effects of guessing on student scores.
After all, for a four choice per item test even a student
who knows absolutely nothing will, on average, get a
score of 25%. Of course that’s not even close
to a passing score so we don’t worry too much
about students at the low end of the distribution. The
more important question is: For students at the higher
end of the distribution (at or above the passing score),
how dramatic are the effects of guessing? How many students
who otherwise would not have passed the test will actually
pass because they guessed some number of correct answers?
Surprisingly, on a mastery test with a high cut score,
the problem is not as serious as you might think. Let’s
look at why.
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